Fagan Associates Archive for October, 2010

Q3 Earnings Strong Thus Far

Thursday, October 28th, 2010

Thus far, with one-third of all S&P 500 companies having reported, third quarter earnings are 28% above year ago levels.  In addition, revenue growth is also above expectations as companies continue to benefit from strong demand from emerging economies, a weakening dollar and moderate demand here in the United States.  This in turn, has provided support for stocks.

On another note, Bill Gross, Managing Director of PIMCO in his monthly “Investment Outlook”  observes that this second round of Quantitative Easing “will likely signify the end of  a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment.”  Time will tell.

The Heat

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

James, Bosh, Wade and Co. opened the NBA season last night with a resounding loss to the Boston Celtics. Afterwards, Dwayne Wade said “what did you expect 82-0″ (and an undefeated season)?  Well, guys, with all the hoopla, YES!
Let me tell you what this has to do with the stock market.
Next week’s election can NOT exceed expectations (just like the Heat) - for that reason we think the market will naturally pause (and by that we mean go down for a period of time) following the election - a classic case of  “buy on the rumor and sell on the news”.

Like the Heat (who we believe will win TONS of games this season), the market will rebound after this temporary pause!

What President Obama Could Learn From President Clinton

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

Arguably President William Clinton was one of our better Presidents when it came to promoting economic growth and even more so if his success were measured in the gains investors reaped from appreciation in the stock market.  However, what many may not know is that the majority of those gains were recorded during President Clinton’s second term.  We looked back at his State of the Union Addresses and found the one noted above most interesting and one that our current President, Barack Obama might be able to learn from.  Specifically, paragraphs seven through and eleven….

 

“We must answer three fundamental questions:  First, how do we make the American Dream of opportunity for all a reality for all Americans who are willing to work for it?  Second, how do we preserve our old and enduring values as we move into the future?  And third, how do we meet these challenges together, as one America?”

 

“We know big government does not have all the answers.  We know there’s not a program for every problem.  We have worked to give the American people a smaller, less bureaucratic government in Washington.  And we have to give the American people one that lives within its means.”

 

“The era of big government is over.  But we cannot go back to the time when our citizens were left to fend for themselves.  Instead, we must go forward as one America, one nation working together to meet the challenges we face together.  Self-reliance and teamwork are not opposing virtues; we must have both.”

 

“I believe our new, smaller government must work in an old-fashioned American way, together with all of our citizens through state and local governments, in the workplace, in religious, charitable and civic associations.  Our goal must be to enable all our people to make the most of their own lives – with stronger families, more educational opportunity, economic security, safer streets, a cleaner environment in a safer world.”

 

“To improve the state of our Union, we must ask more of ourselves, we must expect more of each other, and we must face our challenges together.”

 

THE BOTTOM LINE – Like him or not, President Clinton led our nation during a period of great prosperity, when the vast majority of Americans benefitted.  He understood that for this to occur, there had to exist a partnership between the public and private sectors as well as between Wall Street and Main Street.  President Obama would be well-served to heed these words.

Any specific stocks named in this presentation may not be representative of current or future investments in the portfolio to which they belong. You should not assume that investments in the securities identified were or will be profitable. We will furnish, upon your request, a list of all securities purchased, sold, or held in the portfolio during the twelve months preceding the date of this presentation.

Please note that all data is for general information purposes only and not meant as specific recommendations. The opinions of the authors are not a recommendation to buy or sell the stock, bond market or any security contained therein. Securities contain risks and fluctuations in principal will occur. Research any investment thoroughly prior to committing money or consult with your financial advisor. Please note that Fagan Associates, Inc or related persons buy or sell for itself securities that it also recommends to clients. Consult with your financial advisor prior to making any changes to your portfolio.

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