The strength of consumer spending and household balance sheets has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging market and economic environment. These factors have helped to keep the economy out of recession and have bolstered corporate earnings, but they have also kept inflation hotter than the Fed might otherwise like, resulting in higher interest rates. For investors and savers, recent consumer data are a reminder that staying the course, and not overreacting to short-term news, is still the best way to build and preserve long-term wealth. What should investors know about the state of consumer finances as market and economic uncertainty continues?
Consumer finances both affect the economy and markets and are affected by them. In the U.S., consumer spending makes up 68% of all expenditures each year, forming the foundation of overall economic activity. How consumers feel about their personal financial situations can thus have an important impact on economic growth, and vice versa. When times are difficult, such as during a recession, consumers naturally tighten their belts which can lead to a spiraling economic slowdown. On the other hand, when the economy and job market are strong, consumer sentiment improves. This in turn supports corporate revenues and profits, spurring hiring and wage increases which can drive further consumer spending. Ideally, this then supports financial asset prices and valuations.
The economic swings since 2020 are proof of this – from the sudden collapse in consumer spending during the pandemic to the surge in activity during the subsequent rebound – driven in no small part by government stimulus. Fortunately, despite high inflation rates over the past two years, consumer spending has continued to support the economy. This is partly because the average household balance sheet has never been stronger. The Fed's latest Z.1 report on the Financial Accounts of the United States shows that household net worth climbed to a record level of $154 trillion in the second quarter. This measure includes household assets such as stocks and bonds, bank deposits, defined benefit entitlements, real estate, and more, as well as liabilities such as credit card debt and mortgages.
Of course, the cost of debt has increased as interest rates have risen over the past year. While the 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated over the past few weeks, it has been hovering near the highest levels since 2007, even briefly surpassing 5%. This is challenging for those individuals and businesses with new loans or mortgages with average rates above 8%. The silver lining is that many households were able to lock in low rates over the past few years, especially immediately following the pandemic. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 14 million households refinanced their mortgages during this time and saw an average drop in their monthly payments of $220.
The chart above summarizes the positive net effect on household net worth. It also shows that net worth has more than doubled since the prior 2007 peak. This has occurred despite the never-ending challenges investors faced along the way, including market pullbacks, geopolitical crises, economic slowdowns, problems in Washington, and more recently, inflation, Fed rate hikes, and more. This is a reminder that having a long-term focus has historically been rewarded, regardless of how worrying the short-term headlines may be.
The bottom line? Household net worth has returned to historic highs this year as markets have risen and the economy has been stronger than expected. This is a reminder that all investors should maintain a long-term perspective rather than focus on daily market swings.
