Chart Talk : October 26th 2023

Source: American Association of Individual Investors

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey is often used as a contrarian indicator in the field of financial analysis.  A contrarian indicator is a tool that helps investors make decisions that go against the prevailing market sentiment.  In other words, it suggests that when the majority of investors are bullish, it may be a sign to be cautious, and when the majority are bearish, it may be a signal to consider buying.The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey collects data from its members, who are individual investors, regarding their outlook on the stock market.  The survey typically asks respondents whether they are bullish, bearish or neutral about the market’s prospect for the near future.

  • When the AAII survey shows an exceptionally high percentage of respondents are bullish on the market, it may be a sign that optimism has become excessively high.  This could indicate that the market is overbought and due for a correction.
  • Conversely, when there is an overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among AAII survey participants, it may suggest that the market has become oversold.  This could be a contrarian signal to consider buying because market sentiment may have swung too far in a negative direction.
  • It's important to note that the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is just one of many tools and indicators that investors use to make decisions. It should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and not as the sole basis for investment decisions. Additionally, contrarian indicators are not foolproof, and they can sometimes provide false signals. Market sentiment can change rapidly, and relying solely on sentiment data may not always lead to successful investment outcomes.

This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.

Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”

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