Blink and you missed it. Think back to two weeks ago, investors were wary of a prolonged conflict in Iran, stocks were correcting, sentiment was dour and some short-term thinkers were rearranging their portfolios. Subsequently, the following two weeks have been a testament to the Wall Street adage that nobody knows where the stock market is going over the short-term and that confusing volatility with risk can be very detrimental to the long-term health of your portfolio which is precisely why we design portfolios to withstand these short-term challenges, focusing squarely on the long-term objectives of our clients.
· It is important to remember not to get caught in the day-to-day “entertainment” that is broadcasted 24/7 and center around trading your portfolio. One point from a piece entitled Gambler’s Blues: Betting Isn’t Investing released by Charles Schwab & Company, “when exploring the key differences between investing vs. gambling, know that in personal finance owning beats hooping and discipline beats speculation, with the long run belonging to those who invest in it.” (Source; Charles Schwab & Company; https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/gamblers-blues-betting-isnt-investing)
· According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Report, the bureau received a total of 1,008,597 complaints during 2025 totaling $20.877 in losses. Of those totals, for individuals age sixty and above, the FBI received 201,266 complaints with losses totaling $7.749 billion. For all ages, the top three categories of Investment, Business Email Compromise and Tech/Customer Support sustained combined losses of $13.830 billion. Be careful.
· According to FactSet and brokerage firm, Edward Jones, earnings for the companies within the S&P 500 are expected to grow 11.5%, 19.4%, 20.6% and 19.0% over the next four quarters. Should this be relatively accurate, this should help keep the index at or near these levels.
· The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) announced that, as of April 16, 2026, “mortgage rates declined to a four-week low of 6.30%. Compared to one year ago when rates were at 6.83%, this is a meaningful improvement for homebuyers during what is typically the busy spring homebuying season.”
Economic Data That Drove Market Sentiment This Past Week…
· Industrial Production, a measure of strength in the manufacturing, factory and utility sectors, fell 0.5% during March (0.7% y/y), after rising 0.7% in February. Capacity Utilization fell to 75.7% during March from 76.1% during February, but fell from 76.1% y/y. Manufacturing Capacity fell to 75.3% from 75.5% m/m and as compared to 75.8% y/y. (Source, U.S. Federal Reserve)
· Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits for the week-ended April 11th fell 11,000 to 207,000 from 218,000 which were revised down by 1,000. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average rose 250 to 209,750 from 209,500, which was revised down by 250. Continuing claims for the week-ended April 4th rose 31,000 to 1,818,000 from 1,787,000 the prior week. The continuing claims four-week average fell 8,250 to 1,813,250 from 1,821,500. (Source, U.S. Department of Labor)
· U.S. Export Prices rose 1.6% during the month of March (5.6% y/y) as Import prices rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y). Agricultural export prices rose 0.9% during March (3.4% y/y), after rising 0.9% during February. Non-Agricultural Export Prices rose 1.7% during March (5.8% y/y) after rising 2.1% during February. Please note that import and export prices are not affected by tariffs as they are measured prior to taxes. (Source, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
· Prices at the wholesale level as measured by the Producer Price Index rose 0.5% during March, the third consecutive such increase. Over the past year the PPI has risen 4.0%, up from 3.4% in February. Energy prices jumped 8.5% during March (6.6% y/y) after rising 2.1% in February. Finished food prices fell 0.3% during March (0.9% y/y) after rising 2.4% in February. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.1% during March (3.8% y/y), after rising 0.3% in February. Prices for Intermediate Goods rose 2.6% during March (6.6% y/y) after rising 1.6% in February. (Source, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
· Sales of Existing Homes fell 1.4% (-1.0% y/y) to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 3.80 million units during March from 4.13 million during February. This marked the lowest level since June 2025. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) total housing inventory at the end of February was 1.36 million units, up 3.0% from February and by 2.3% y/y. Unsold inventory rose to 4.1 months, up from 3.8 months during both February and January. The report also noted that the median price for all existing homes rose 2.7% to $408,800 in March (1.4% y/y) from $398,000. (Source, National Association of Realtors)
Economic Reports scheduled to be released this week, include the following – on Tuesday, March Retail Sales and February Business Inventories; on Thursday, Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits; and, on Friday the second and final reading on April Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.
Several potentially market moving companies are scheduled to report earnings, to include GE Aerospace (GE), United Health Group (UNH), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Philip Morris (PM), IBM (IBM), L’Oreal (LRLCY), GE Vernova (GEV), Tesla (TSLA), Caterpillar (CAT), Intel (INTC), KLA (KLAC), American Express (AXP), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Procter & Gamble (PG).
