As we enter the last trading month of 2025 and after the recent round of volatility it is important to note that despite all the noise, the S&P 500 has risen 16.45% thus far while the NASDAQ Composite has tacked on 21.00%. Absent an unexpected and very sharp selloff, both indexes will sport double digit advances for the third consecutive year. We often quote the old Wall Street adage that the market climbs a wall of worry. As it helps ratings, it is important for investors to remember and recognize that the job of the news media is to regularly place those bricks.
· “Artificial-intelligence chatbots are poised to drive billions of dollars in commerce during this year’s holiday season, a milestone for AI technology, not to mention retails and consumers. While full agentic commerce – the use of AI tools, or agents, to find merchandise, comparison shop, and place orders – is in the early stages, AI’s influence is accelerating, promising new commercial opportunities for brands and retailers and a transformation experience for shoppers.” (Source, Barron’s, December 1, 2025)
· Meta Platforms (META) is purportedly in talks to buy Alphabet’s (GOOG) custom AI chips, called Tensor Processing Units. “Under the current proposal, Meta could rent TPUs via Google Cloud as soon as 2026, and begin deploying purchased chips in its own data centers from 2027 onward.” (Source, Techzine Global)
· Gobble. Gobble. “After hitting a record high of $64.05 in 2022, the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 declined 5% to $55.18 in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of declines. Since 1986, the cost of a Thanksgiving feast has increased 92%, which is less than half the 194% increase in the Consumer Price Index.” (Content from MFS; Source, American Farm Bureau.) Number of New York Met World Series Titles Since 1986 – Zero!
· Odds of a Fed Rate cut at its regularly scheduled meeting in December more than doubled from 30% to over 70% after New York Fed President John Williams noted that current policy is “somewhat restrictive.” In our opinion, the Fed cuts by 0.25% at the conclusion of their next meeting, December 9-10.
It’s The Economy…”
· Orders for Durable Goods (those expected to last at least three years) rose 0.5% during September, after surging 3.0% in August. Smoothing out the m/m volatility, Orders for Durable Goods have risen 7.2% y/y. Transportation Equipment Orders rose 0.4% (15.8% y/y), after jumping 8.0% the prior month. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.6% during September (3.1% y/y), after rising 0.5% during August. (Source, U.S. Census Bureau)
· Prices at the wholesale level as measured by the Producer Price Index rose 0.3% during September after sliding 0.1% in August. Over the past year the PPI has risen 2.7%, down from 3.3% in July and from a peak rate of 11.7% during March 2023. Energy prices jumped 3.5% during August (3.8% y/y) after easing 0.4% in August. Finished food prices rose 1.1% during September (4.0% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in August. Ex- food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.1% during September (2.6% y/y), after falling 0.1% in August. Prices for Intermediate Goods rose 0.4% in September (3.8% y/y), after rising the same amount in August. (Source, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
· Retail Sales rose 0.2% during September (4.3% y/y), after jumping 0.6% in August. Spending on Motor Vehicle & Parts slid 0.3% during September (5.1% y/y) after rising 0.6% in August. Retail Sales Excluding Motor Vehicles & Parts rose 0.3% (4.1% y/y). Two key components of this report, Sales at Gasoline Stations, rose 2.0% during September (3.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in August while Food Services and Drinking Place Sales rose 0.7% during September (6.7% y/y) after rising 1.0% in August. (Source, U.S. Census Bureau)
· The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 (-21.4% y/y) during November from 95.5 in October, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The present situation index fell to 126.9 in November from 130.2 (-10.3% y/y) while the expectations component tumbled to 63.2 during November from 71.8 during October (-32.6% y/y). Those surveyed saying that jobs are “hard to get” fell to 17.9% of respondents during November from 18.3% in October while those claiming that jobs were “plentiful” fell up to 27.6% of respondents from 28.6% during those same months.
Economic Reports scheduled to be released this week, include the following – on Monday, October Construction Spending; on Thursday, Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits; and, on Friday, October Durable Goods, October Consumer Credit and October Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.
Several potentially market moving companies are scheduled to report earnings, to include Credo Tech Group (CRDO), MongoDB (MDB), Marvell Technology (MRVL), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), Salesforce (CRM), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Guidewire Software (GWRE), ULTA Beauty (ULTA), Dollar General (DG) Kroger (KR) and Hewlett Packard Ent (HPE).